This week we saw Barry Young, a Te Whatu Ora database administrator, arrested and charged after allegedly taking confidential patient data and leaking it.
Since the COVID vaccine rollout began conspiracy theorists have falsely claimed that it has caused large numbers of injuries and deaths. On Monday leaked patient data, apparently from Young, was released to the public via prominent anti-vaxxers Steve Kirsch and Liz Gunn. They falsely claimed it as definitive proof that COVID vaccines are dangerous and have killed large numbers of people. This is untrue. During the 137 week vaccination period the death rate in all age groups is lower than it was before the COVID pandemic began.
By his own account Barry Young “woke up” over ten years ago. This meant he was suspicious about the pandemic early on and these feelings grew stronger during the vaccine roll out. As a database administrator for Te Whatu Ora he came to believe that he had discovered data which confirmed his worst fears: COVID was not killing people, the vaccine was. But that’s not what the data shows. Actual experts have explained this at length.
Young took this confidential patient data and leaked it to Liz Gunn and Counterspin Media. It was shared with discredited tech CEO Steve Kirsch, a Voices For Freedom fave.
This was not a last-minute crisis of conscience. Young planned this for years, offering the data to Voices For Freedom and Chantelle Baker in 2021 (according to VFF on their website, and a post by Chantelle).
The leaked data does not show that there were excess deaths in New Zealand. Nor does it show that any deaths were due to the vaccine.
What it does show is that someone with a conspiracist mindset who had access to some data could falsely claim it showed what he wanted it to. It is pure motivated reasoning. Young wanted to believe.
Liz Gunn discussed the leaked data on a video with Young which has amassed over 700,000 views. Young claimed that he is a scientist. He does have a Master of Science degree, but it is in computer science, not epidemiology, statistics, or other relevant field. He made fundamental errors such as failing to account for age, assuming his conclusions from the outset, and cherry-picking data. The analysis he shared with Gunn was overemotive, rudimentary and contextless, stripping the real human stories from the patients, lumping them into his imagined vaccine genocide conspiracy theory.
The leaked data and “analysis” is chum in the water for conspiracy theorists. They might not believe all of the data, or the conclusions made, but the story confirms what they believed all along.
Conspiracy theorists are desperate to get the message to the mainstream. The conspiracist community is flooding social media and email lists with the video and release. Politicians, news sites, your best friend’s mum. NZ conspiracy influencers have picked it up, like Derty Sesh, Damien DeMent, Lynda Wharton and crank medical influencers NZDSOS. Kim Dotcom’s shortened video of Liz Gunn’s release has had 1.6 million views at time of writing. Steve Kirsch, who has had the data since early November, has been doing the rounds; Alex Jones’ Infowars, New Zealand’s Reality Check Radio, former-left-wing conspiracy theorists Jimmy Dore and Russell Brand, and even the UK parliament with anti-vaccine MP Andrew Bridgen.
This ecosystem, and the transition from local conspiracists to big-name foreigners, politicians and ultimately mainstream media is well-documented. We’ve seen it happen in New Zealand before with the “Baby W” case. Protests and court cases and conspiracy theorists’ propaganda claims get laundered into mainstream discourse this way.
Young’s inevitable criminal charges are giving the disparate conspiracy groups something to rally around, a focal point in a movement that already had a problem with issue creep. With the mandates gone, there was a search for a cause: anti-trans, climate change denial, false flags, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. A martyr for the cause is timely.
Martyrdom is a common theme for conspiracy theory groups. The involvement of our criminal justice system is now being presented as evidence that Young’s claims are real. After all, if he wasn’t on to something, “they” wouldn’t be trying to “silence” him, would they? Again, we have seen this before, with saboteur Graham Philip.
Like Philip, Young is being hailed by the “freedom movement” as a hero, with the natural consequences of his actions presented as proof of his righteousness. His arrest is reframed as silencing a whistle-blower and a free speech issue.
Conspiracy pushers hope some of these talking points can cross over into mainstream media, with Young as poster child. Who doesn’t want more openness and accessibility of data, and to ensure free speech for whistle-blowers?
But New Zealand law already contains protections for whistle-blowers. Young chose not to take an approach that would enjoy protection. Young is not being arrested or charged because of what he has claimed, which would be a free speech issue. Instead, his legal troubles stem from his alleged actions with private and confidential data.
Misinformation like Young’s “analysis” has serious real-world effects. When people don’t get vaccinated because they’re scared, they are more at risk of being severely ill, or dying, or of long-term disability, and they are more likely to spread the disease to others.
And we are concerned that the laundering process might take this misinformation into government. It’s hard to see good policy being made by people who subscribe to anti-vax conspiracy theories. And we worry about MPs and ministers rejecting good advice from experts in our public service because they have been sucked in by misinformation.
There is always a risk that mainstream media coverage can inadvertently spread the misinformation and cement conspiracy narratives. We have a detailed guide for media on covering misinformation stories. We urge the news media to keep this in mind as they cover the Young story.
Conspiracy theorists are going to theorise no matter what. But we can recognise how they use the same methods over and over to build theories and try to get them into the minds of ordinary people. Understanding how they work helps us talk to the people we know, to stop the spread of misinformation and prevent the harms it causes.
Online resources
Professor Jeffrey Morriss on basic plausibility tests — Professor Jeffrey Morriss Twitter Post
Claims of excess deaths related to vaccine labelled ‘nonsense’ — Rachel Thomas, The Post
Posts distort UK data on Covid vaccines, death — Daniel FUNKE, AFP USA
Resource: how to avoid media manipulation attempts — FACT Aotearoa
