Dear reader,
You’re probably a pretty smart person. And you might look at conspiracy theorists’ more out-there ideas and think: “how does anyone ever fall for that?”
The answer is, people with conspiracy theories have ways to make their ideas seem compelling. Sometimes they use them deliberately. And sometimes it’s almost an accident, but if they tell a lot of stories and one story told the right way gets traction, they stick to it.
Fear
Fear is one of the best ways to get you interested and shut down any thought that maybe things don’t make sense.
A typical conspiracy theory story that uses fear will tell you there is a serious threat to something you hold dear: your freedom, your kids, your life, maybe even your car?
Perhaps there will be a sense of urgency: whatever it is will happen soon. It could happen any time. We don’t know when – if there were a clear time and date, that might make you lose faith when the deadline passes and nothing happens. But it’s coming.
Coincidentally, the conspiracy theory advocate will have a solution. Something that will bring salvation. It might be an action from you, it might be buying a product or just sending them money. But it’s a great strategy. Create fear, and then sell safety.
How could you tell a scary story, a “manufactured crisis” from a genuine warning? One obvious way is: check if the predictions come true! Despite predictions, New Zealand didn’t turn into a totalitarian dictatorship after COVID lockdowns came and we didn’t see mass deaths from COVID vaccinations. Monkeypox wasn’t the next COVID and it didn’t lead to new restrictions on civil liberties.
Dodgy stats and pseudo-science
Although conspiracy theorists like to pooh-pooh eggheads and boffins as being either stupid or corrupt, they know that most people can see science and technology work, and therefore have some trust in them. So they try very hard to seem “sciencey”.
(Aside: this is oddly parallel to the way conspiracy theory advocates rubbish mainstream media, but love being on it whenever they get the chance, and set up their own ventures that mimic all the features of mainstream media outlets).
To successfully mimic science you need to do a few things. First, you should use the same kinds of jargon and shop-talk that actual scientists use. If you have to make up new terms of your own, that’s ok. Second, you should illustrate your claims with graphs and statistics. It doesn’t matter if they’re valid, relevant or applicable. And you should have some fancy qualifications, even if they’re from a diploma mill or in a different field.
If you have a quack medical treatment, you’ll want to wear scrubs or a lab coat, and call your centre a “clinic”. And if you’re making claims about things people can’t see with the naked eye, use a microscope, whether or not it’s the right kind.
Vanity
We know. You’re modest. Humble even. But we all like to feel special. Conspiracies by definition are secret. And there’s something about being let in on a secret.
Advocates of conspiracy theory are always telling you that their story is something they don’t want you to know. But if you believe them, you’ll be part of the club. You’ll know what’s happening. You’ll be special.
Aha
Reality can be disappointing. When you look hard, things never quite line up. There are always contradictions and questions. This is why science is a continuing activity, and historians keep digging into what really happened.
But conspiracy theory offers clarity and certainty. And we like that. Conspiracy theory appeals to our dislike of grey areas and preference for black and white.
A solution
You don’t have to memorise every item on the list of cognitive biases to make yourself immune. Ask yourself when you hear a story: is this true? Or does it just feel like it should be true?
And coming up: we talk to a reference librarian about how to tell good sources from bad ones.
